Ukraine, the USA, Russia, and Europe – Trump’s Return and the Proxy Wars of the 21st Century

If history has a sense of humour, it must be dark and deeply cynical.

For decades, the United States has perfected the art of the proxy war—outsourcing conflicts to friendly nations, arming them to the teeth, and keeping their own body bags to a minimum. From Korea to Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Syria, the playbook was always the same:

• Keep the enemy engaged elsewhere.

• Provide weapons, money, and intelligence, but never get too involved.

• Declare moral superiority, and if it all falls apart, exit quickly and deny responsibility.

Under Joe Biden, the Ukraine war was a textbook modern proxy war. The Ukrainians fought, the Russians bled, and the West bankrolled the conflict without losing a single NATO soldier.

But now, Trump is back in the White House—and he has no patience for proxy wars that don’t directly benefit him.

Ukraine, once the centrepiece of Western unity, is now on the clear path to abandonment, as Trump sees it as little more than a financial liability rather than a strategic necessity.

A recent Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy confirmed the shift.

• No diplomacy, just mockery.

• No support, just transactional demands.

• No long-term thinking, just an attempt to shift the burden elsewhere.

So, what happens when the world’s most consequential proxy war gets cancelled? Let’s take a look.

1. The USA’s Love Affair with Proxy Wars – Until Trump Came Along

The Classic Proxy War Playbook (1945-2024)

For decades, the US relied on proxy conflicts to maintain global dominance without direct confrontation. The formula was always the same:

1. Identify a regional conflict that could weaken a strategic adversary.

2. Find a local ally willing to fight (South Vietnam, the Mujahideen, the Contras, Syrian rebels, Ukraine).

3. Pump in weapons, intelligence, and training, while keeping US soldiers out of the fight.

This strategy gave us:

• Korea (1950-1953): First major Cold War proxy war, keeping communism at bay in the South.

• Vietnam (1955-1975): An attempt to hold the line against the USSR and China—until the plug was pulled in 1975.

• Afghanistan (1979-1989): Arming the Mujahideen against the Soviets—an absolute win, until they turned into al-Qaeda.

• Nicaragua (1980s): Funding the Contras against the Sandinistas—until the Iran-Contra scandal forced the US to back off.

• Syria (2011-present): A confused proxy war against ISIS, Assad, and Iranian influence—with mixed results.

And Ukraine (2014-2024) fit this pattern perfectly.The US and NATO provided support, Russia was bogged down, and the West maintained a clear strategic edge.

Then, Trump walked in and flipped the table.

2. Trump’s Problem with Proxy Wars – They Don’t Make Him Money

Trump’s Worldview: No Strategy, Only Transactions

Trump doesn’t do long-term strategy. He doesn’t believe in "defending democracy," only in making deals. And if a proxy war doesn’t bring direct, immediate benefits to him personally, then it’s useless.

• Vietnam? "Loser war."

• NATO? "Protection racket."

• Ukraine? "Bad business deal."

For Trump, Ukraine is not a strategic battlefield; it’s a charity case he wants no part of.

A recent Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy made it painfully clear:

• Trump mocked Zelenskyy for "constantly asking for money."

• He publicly questioned why Ukraine matters to America at all.

• He shouted down the interpreter, suspecting (wrongly) that his words were being "misrepresented."

In one chaotic meeting, Trump signalled that the era of US-backed Ukraine is over.

3. Ukraine – From Proxy State to Abandoned Chess Piece

Ukraine = Vietnam 2.0 (But Without the Helicopters Yet)

Vietnam was America’s longest-running proxy war—until it became too expensive and too unpopular. The solution?

• Pull out overnight.

• Leave a weak ally to fend for itself.

• Watch the collapse from a distance.

Ukraine is now heading towards the same fate—not because it is losing, but because Trump is tired of it.

4. Europe – From Spectator to Unwilling Proxy

Europe’s Afghanistan Moment: Will They Be Left Holding the Bag?

• In 2021, the US pulled out of Afghanistan overnight—without consulting NATO.

• The result? A chaotic collapse, thousands dead, and a complete Taliban takeover.

With Trump’s disinterest in Ukraine, the same fate awaits Europe.

• Massive pressure to increase military spending.

• A deep split within NATO between those who want to fight and those who don’t.

• Russia gaining momentum, because the US has left the room.

Europe wanted strategic autonomy. Now it’s being shoved into it—without preparation.

5. Russia – The Real Winner of Trump’s Proxy War Exit

For Putin, this is the best-case scenario.

• A divided West.

• A weakened Ukraine.

• A US president willing to negotiate from a position of ignorance.

We might even see a Trump-Putin "peace deal" that effectively rewards Russia’s aggression.

Ukraine is no longer a proxy battleground. It’s a bargaining chip.

6. The Harsh Reality – What Comes Next?

• Ukraine will be abandoned.

• Europe will be forced into military leadership it isn’t ready for.

• Russia will exploit the chaos.

For the first time in decades, the US is stepping away from a proxy war without even pretending to have an exit strategy.

Welcome to Trump’s world – where proxy wars aren’t fought, they’re sold.